Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.653859 2.834538 3.027818 3.251089 3.503337 3.781227 4.112944
2025-02-16 2.364119 2.604448 2.875693 3.208326 3.610735 4.089358 4.713790
2025-02-23 2.187216 2.459921 2.779150 3.187566 3.707352 4.363669 5.285501
2025-03-02 2.053369 2.345507 2.697114 3.162131 3.778767 4.597672 5.825890
2025-03-09 1.946706 2.251733 2.627280 3.137932 3.839432 4.813862 6.367696
2025-03-16 1.865604 2.181809 2.579025 3.132859 3.918996 5.058971 6.991755
2025-03-23 1.813282 2.143475 2.566540 3.171417 4.059320 5.406852 7.852509
2025-03-30 1.736423 2.067987 2.498733 3.125711 4.068811 5.549740 8.384540
2025-04-06 1.667001 1.998176 2.433640 3.077569 4.067620 5.671707 8.902211
2025-04-13 1.592440 1.917799 2.349406 2.995118 4.004336 5.679046 9.189718
2025-04-20 1.562709 1.896030 2.344443 3.027987 4.125327 6.020415 10.279363
2025-04-27 1.544483 1.888615 2.358492 3.089311 4.297468 6.480091 11.809565
2025-05-04 1.520788 1.873154 2.360980 3.134301 4.449463 6.934594 13.560620
2025-05-11 1.477905 1.829054 2.319682 3.107451 4.473360 7.137035 14.717406
2025-05-18 1.440424 1.790990 2.285225 3.088873 4.509579 7.371032 16.105235
2025-05-25 1.404045 1.753037 2.249038 3.064828 4.532859 7.580494 17.547786
2025-06-01 1.370304 1.717598 2.214944 3.041866 4.555546 7.792641 19.160648
2025-06-08 1.343277 1.690839 2.192685 3.037051 4.612179 8.095956 21.419843
2025-06-15 1.328066 1.680607 2.194977 3.073648 4.753536 8.639682 25.442127
2025-06-22 1.294525 1.642366 2.152447 3.030265 4.729017 8.749133 27.325017
2025-06-29 1.262146 1.604928 2.109848 2.984544 4.695846 8.830634 29.191389
2025-07-06 1.223687 1.557534 2.050234 2.906183 4.588719 8.690964 29.478967
2025-07-13 1.212087 1.549709 2.052432 2.937430 4.716136 9.245463 35.820329